2002: A ‘Safer Than Average’ Year

From a safety standpoint, 2002 was a relatively benign year in terms of the toll on lives lost, aircraft destroyed, and losses to insurers. In this respect, the year’s record provided a “much needed respite” after the horrific toll in 2001, when four jetliners were hijacked Sept. 11 and used to inflict more casualties in one day than the total toll from the grim history of hijackings (see ASW, Jan. 7, 2002).

The preliminary 2002 results were compiled by UK-based aviation consultancy Airclaims. The firm’s annual look-back at the year just completed is considered by many in aviation as the authoritative report on how the industry is doing.

Airclaims’ year-end Special Bulletin No. 326 contained a potpourri of highlights and concerns (figures cited below include both Western and Eastern-built aircraft):

• “During 2002 there were 35 fatal accidents (involving aircraft of 15 seats or more and excluding deliberate acts of violence) resulting in the death of 985 passengers and crew. This is 17% up on 2001 when 842 passengers and crew were killed in 30 fatal accidents but 13% better than 2000 and 14% better than the average of 1,150 deaths annually for the 1990s.”
• “The fact that known losses for 2002 have been relatively ‘light’ should not be used as an excuse for complacency. The long term trend (excluding 2001 figures) still predicts annual losses of $2.0 billion and, indeed, incurred losses in six of the last ten years have exceeded this figure. $2.0 billion should be considered … the current average annual loss figure and if, by a fluke, losses in 2002 have turned out to be a lot less than average, then who is to say 2003 might turn out to be a lot worse?”
• “Estimates for the cost of losses incurred during 2001 continue to grow … 12 months ago [our] provisional estimates for the cost of losses that year stood at $5.764 billion. This estimate has now grown to $6.088 billion – an increase of over $300 million. It is conceivable that losses for 2001 could go much higher still.” (ASW note: the insurance losses cited here include those resulting from the 9/11 terrorist attacks.)
• “From a flight safety point of view, 2002 was generally a bit better than average which, given the difficulties currently being experienced by the industry, is a good result. Even when reduced levels of exposure are taken into account, the year still shows up well.”
• Western-built jets: eight fatal accidents killing 560 passengers and crew. Better than the 1990s average of 11 fatal accidents and 659 deaths.
• Western-built turboprops: 30 total loss accidents, down on the 1990s annual average of 32.9. “Based on past experience, it is likely we will discover further total losses as time goes by and 2002 may then turn out to be slightly worse than the 1990s average,” Airclaims cautioned.
• Eastern-built jets: Five total loss accidents, one less than in 2001 and better than the 1990s average of 7.9.
• Eastern-built turboprops: Five total loss accidents, better than the 1990s average (7.9).
• Deliberate acts of violence: “The crash of a China Northern MD-82 on May 7^th following an in-flight fire does not appear to have been the result of terrorism but rather, it is alleged, to the actions of a passenger who, it is said, had bought seven life insurance policies at the airport shortly before boarding the flight,” Airclaims noted.

Getting beyond the statistical summary, at our invitation Airclaims director Paul Hayes offered this larger perspective:

“I think that in recent years there has been a paradigm shift in the approach to air safety. There is now a far greater realization that air safety should be improved everywhere and that it is everyone’s problem. Almost the whole aviation community is taking a far more proactive approach to helping to raise standards worldwide, exporting good practices, etc.

“This seems new to me. In the past, improvements in procedures and technology have generally only managed to keep up with the growth in air travel. Accident rates have fallen but the number of accidents has not changed very much. Now, while technology continues to improve, the industry’s commitment to ‘safety outreach’ could result in a marked reduction in the number of accidents over the next decade. As a result I would hope to see at least a halving in the average annual number of passenger fatalities worldwide, from about 1,000 now down to 500.”

>> Hayes, e-mail [email protected] <<