The number of NATO members meeting or exceeding the goal of spending at least 2 percent of the gross domestic product on defense is expected to double in 2024 versus 2023, the alliance’s headquarters said this week in an annual accounting of spending data.
In 2024, 23 alliance embers are expected to be at or above the 2 percent GDP target versus an estimated 10 members in 2023, which is from seven in 2022, NATO said on Monday. Figures for 2023 and 2024 are estimates.
Leading the defense spending charge relative to GDP is Poland at 4.12 percent with the Slovak Republic at 2 percent marking the last of the NATO members to meet the guideline. The U.S. ranks third at 3.38 percent.
Falling below the goal, from highest to lowest, are Croatia, Portugal, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain, the latter coming in at 1.28 percent.
NATO members are expected to spend 2.71 percent of their collective GDP on defense in 2024, up from 2.53 percent in 2023 and eclipsing the 2.69 percent reached in 2020.
The 2 percent defense investment guideline was established in 2014 by NATO heads of state and government following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. At that time, the U.S, Greece, and the United Kingdom were the only three countries that met the goal.
The NATO report also outlines equipment expenditures—to include research and development spending on major equipment—as a percentage of overall defense spending, showing Poland again leading the way at 51.1 percent and Belgium bringing up the rear of the 32-member alliance at 15.2 percent.
U.S. equipment spending as a percentage of overall defense spending is estimated at 29.9 percent in 2024. The U.S. leads the way on overall defense spending, with NATO estimating the country will spend $755 million in 2024 and the rest of the alliance $430 billion based on 2015 prices and exchange rates. U.S. defense spending in 2024 is up 7 percent over $704 million in 2023.
The $430 billion contribution from the non-U.S. members represents a substantial increase over the 2023 estimate, up 18 percent from $365 billion in 2023. The 2024 figures include Sweden, NATO’s most recent member, which joined the alliance in March.