By Ann Roosevelt
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) finds that Army aviation modernization would cost an average of $3.3 billion a year from 2007-2030 at the same time the service expects its heaviest investment in the Future Combat Systems (FCS) family of equipment, thus offering “substantial budget challenges” for planners.
“Under the Army’s current plan, the years of highest spending occur after 2020,” the CBO paper, November 2007 “Modernizing The Army’s Rotary-Wing Aviation Fleet,” said. “When combined with the simultaneous full-rate production of FCS equipment, that spending could be difficult to sustain if budgets are constrained.”
CBO said the Army’s helicopter fleet today–some 3,500 aircraft strong–is about one-third the size of the rotary-wing fleet at the end of the Cold War. The servicer’s modernization plan would replace or upgrade nearly every helicopter by 2030 at a cost of some $3.3 billion. The annual bill could have been nearly $4 billion if the Army had not cancelled the Boeing [BA]-Sikorsky [UTX] RAH-66 Comanche attack-reconnaissance helicopter.
In keeping with its mandate for objective impartial analysis, CBO analyzed the planned fleet costs and capabilities and offered four alternatives to the Army’s modernization plan, without recommendations.
However, the four alternatives offer general conclusions, including that without significant cuts in the aviation force structure or allowing further fleet aging, there is only “a limited opportunity to reduce spending” on helicopter modernization over the next five to 10 years, the paper said. Additionally, alternatives to reduce average spending over the long term but still maintain current and near-term capabilities would come at the cost of “sacrificing many of the expanded capabilities anticipated in the Army’s long-term plans.”
Over the next decade, the Army plans to replace the Bell Helicopter Textron [TXT] UH-1 Huey with the new European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. (EADS) UH-72A Lakota; upgrade the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk A/L models to the M model, and upgrade the Boeing CH-47D Chinook to the F model. Further out, the Army plans to work with the Air Force to develop the Joint Heavy Lift Rotorcraft.
Additionally, Lakotas and the new Bell Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters would replace the OH-58C/D Kiowa reconnaissance helicopters, also built by Bell.
The Boeing-produced AH-64A Apache attack helicopters would be upgraded to the D configuration and Longbow Apaches would be upgraded to Block III somewhere around 2011.
By 2020, the service plans to start work on a new attack aircraft currently called the Jonit Multi-Role rotorcraft.
To implement the aviation modernization plan, the service would annually spend an average of $3.3 billion through 2030, with a low of about $2 billion in 2021 to a high of close to $6 billion in 2024, the CBO paper said. This compares to a yearly average of $2.2 billion from 1986-2005, while the aviation fleet was shrinking.
All four of CBO’s alternatives would maintain the total size of the helicopter fleet at or above current levels through 2025, though not all of the expanded capabilities would be achieved.
Alternative 1 would cost about $2.6 billion annually and spread cuts across most planned programs.
Alternative 2 is the least expensive with an average annual cost of $2.1 billion. It offers a service life extension program for Chinook and cancels the Joint Heavy Lift aircraft. FCS vehicles could not be transported by helicopter under this option.
Alternative 3 would cost about $2.8 billion annually, cutting attack/reconnaissance capabilities. Apache Block III and the Joint Multi-Role Rotorcraft would be eliminated, and Apache Longbow would receive no extension program. This would mean attack capabililties would “decline sharply” as Lonbows began retiring around 2025.
Alternative 4 would accelerate JHL development to better match the planned fielding schedule for the FCS brigades. It does not focus on cost reduction, and would produce average annual spending of about $3.3 billion–similar to the Army’s modernization plan. To offset some of the increased cost, the Apache Block III program would be eliminated, with a service life extension program for Apache Longbows instead of pursuing the Joint Multirole rotorcraft.
In the near term, CBO said “there is limited potential to reduce spending” on helicopter modernization without “significantly cutting” aviation force structure. Force structure cuts would come as the ground forces are expected to grow in response to the high demand for deployed units. CBO did not, however, include cuts to the fleet of transport helicopters used to support deployed forces. Cuts to attack/reconnaissance helicopters were part of the alternatives under the assumption that “some or all of their capabilities could be replaced by armed unmanned aircraft or by Air Force of Navy strike aircraft.”
Analysis also showed the Army’s highest spending would occur after 2020 for production of the Joint Heavy Life aircraft. CBO estmates JHL costs will be higher than other rotorcraft because of the larger airframe. This would come at the same time as FCS full-rate production. Budget pressures would increase if the costs of those systems grew during their development as has been the case with similar development programs.”
CBO prepared the paper at the behest of then-Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) and Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), then chairman and ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee panel now called Air and Land Forces. Weldon was defeated by Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) in the 2006 election. Abercrombie is now chairman of the panel.