Iran likely will establish some sort of controls on firing the nuclear-tipped missiles it seems bent upon developing, but a worrisome factor is that Iran has been decentralizing once-rigid control of its military units, analysts said.
They spoke in a panel forum of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
Iran has announced plans for a space program, which would involve much the same technology as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) able to strike targets throughout Europe or in the United States.
“Certainly a space program could be leveraged [to build] an ICBM,” according to Michael Connell, with the Center for Naval Analysis, speaking for himself. He was a panelist at the AEI event.
Iran also continues producing nuclear materials in defiance of Western opinion and United Nations resolutions.
With decentralization of the Iranian military, there is an increased chance for rogue commanders to take actions on their own volition, Connell said.
As far as Iran decentralizing its military control, and the issue that raises when Iran finishes developing long-range, nuclear-tipped missiles, “I do think it’s a serious problem,” Connell said. Though Iranian leaders will attempt to impose some sort of top-down control over launching of nuclear weapons, “there is some element of risk there,” Connell said.
Western observers worry that a nuclear-armed Iran could threaten and bully its neighbors and others including Europeans, and that has prompted the United States to propose constructing a missile defense shield.
The European Missile Defense system would involve radar in the Czech Republic and interceptors in ground silos in Poland, a program that would be led by The Boeing Co. [BA].
One shouldn’t overestimate Iranian missile capabilities, said Kenneth Katzman with the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. Iran isn’t about to sink a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, he said.
He noted that Iran possesses the Shahab-3 missile with a 2,000-kilometer (1,243 mile) range, able to strike Greece. This is not, Katzman said, a very accurate weapon.
Further, “a lot of their tests have been failures.” However, Iran continues to develop its missiles.