The Pentagon estimates that China now has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, a hundred more than last year, and projects that Beijing will have over 1,000 such weapons by 2030.
China’s push to grow its nuclear stockpile is exceeding previous projections, according to the Pentagon’s new “China Military Power” report released on Thursday, which also details the department’s latest insights on Beijing’s military modernization effort.
“Compared to the [People’s Liberation Army’s] (PLA) nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity,” the Pentagon writes in the report. “[China] is expanding the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms while investing in and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support further expansion of its nuclear forces.”
The last version of the report released in November 2022 stated China likely had over 400 operational nuclear warheads at the time and was on a path to have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 (Defense Daily, Nov. 29 2022).
Thursday’s report states China “probably completed the construction of its three new solid-propellant silo fields in 2022, which consists of at least 300 new [intercontinental ballistic missile] (ICBM) silos, and has loaded at least some ICBMs into these silos.”
Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, sent a letter in late January to lawmakers confirming China now has a larger inventory of land-based fixed and mobile ICBM launchers than the U.S., but that it does not have more ICBMs or nuclear warheads (Defense Daily, Feb. 7).
An unclassified version of the new National Defense Strategy released last October detailed the “pacing challenge” of China as the department’s prime focus over the more “acute threat” presented by Russia, citing Beijing as “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security” (Defense Daily, Oct. 27).
“The PLA is aggressively developing capabilities to provide options for the PRC to dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention in the Indo-Pacific region, and to conduct military operations deeper into the Indo-Pacific region and globally,” the Pentagon wrote in its new report.
The Pentagon’s report notes China still has the largest navy in the world by number of vessels, to include over 370 ships and submarines, with Beijing having launched its third aircraft carrier last year and working toward starting construction of its fourth YUSHEN class Amphibious Assault Ships (LHA) by early 2023.
“In the near-term, the [PLA Navy] will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles, notably enhancing [China’s] power projection capability,” the report states.
The Pentagon’s report states China is also furthering development of counter-space capabilities “that can contest or deny an adversary’s access to and operations in the space domain,” to specifically include direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles, co-orbital satellites, electronic warfare and directed-energy systems.
DoD also notes the PLA’s Air Force is “rapidly catching up to western air forces,” as Beijing pushes to modernize its fleet with more “domestically built aircraft and a wide range of UASs.”
The report states Chinese President Xi Jinping has reaffirmed his intent to continue Beijing’s military buildup with the aim of having the necessary capability to potentially pursue an invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
“Throughout 2022, the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, including ballistic missile overflights of Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone and large-scale simulated joint blockade and simulated joint firepower strike operations,” the report states.