Most aerospace/defense industry leaders believe that the cyber and unmanned sectors will experience “significant disruption” in the next decade, according to a newly released survey on global competition and innovation.
Almost 80 percent of the 100 or so respondents predicted such drastic change for cyber/information technology, the highest of any market, said consulting firm Avascent, which disclosed the survey results during a June 29 webinar. Unmanned technologies followed, with almost 70 percent of respondents forecasting turbulence in that area. Electronic warfare/information warfare and C4ISR came in third and fourth place, respectively.
“For companies operating in the ‘significant disruption’ markets, speed and constant re-evaluation of the market ecosystem and competitive landscape will be crucial for success,” Avascent said.
Avascent outlined several other trends in unmanned aerial vehicles, including continued growth in armed systems. China’s Wing Loong, a medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV that can fire air-to-ground missiles, has begun appearing in Pakistan and elsewhere. International collaboration is also expanding, exemplified by Raytheon’s [RTN] recently announced teaming agreement with Israel’s UVision to develop a small, loitering airborne system to meet U.S. Army requirements.
Yet another UAV trend is the consolidation of startups seeking to pool their resources, Avascent said. Recently, Strat Aero acquired Aero Kinetics, and Martin UAV acquired MLB Company. However, the first of those deals has not gone smoothly and is mired in lawsuits between Britain-based Strat Aero and the founder of Texas-based Aero Kinetics.
While aerospace/industry leaders operate in a rapidly changing market, most do not believe their organizations are ready, the Avascent survey found. Only 38 percent agreed that their companies are better positioned for international expansion than their key competitors. The survey showed that the business climate might not get any easier, with 87 percent of respondents expecting more intense competition in the next 12 months, up from 80 percent in a 2014 survey.
Turning to manned aviation, Avascent said the United States has a “manageable” fighter gap but that India faces a “dramatic shortfall” in such planes. In addition, Avascent predicted that countries will increase their use of virtual training to make up for deficiencies in flight time.