The political battle over whether humans are causing climate change – and whether the climate is changing at all – is far from settled, but the Defense Department is already planning for the worst effects of a warming planet.
The Defense Department on July 28 published a report on the security implications of climate change, which said combatant commanders already are seeing the impact of climate change in “shocks and stressors to vulnerable nations and communities” on every continent except Antarctica, where there is no U.S. geographic combatant command.
The first sentence of the report does not mince words about where the Defense Department stands on climate change. “DoD recognizes the reality of climate change and the significant risk it poses to U.S. interests globally,” it says.
“The Department of Defense sees climate change as a present security threat, not strictly a long-term risk. We are already observing the impacts of climate change in shocks and stressors to vulnerable nations and communities.”
The National Security Strategy, issued in February, already identified global warming as an urgent threat to U.S. national security because it has the potential to worsen and increase the frequency of natural disasters, which in turn create refugee crises and conflicts over scarce resources.
“Persistently recurring conditions such as flooding, drought, and higher temperatures increase the strain on fragile states and vulnerable populations by dampening economic activity and burdening public health through loss of agriculture and electricity production, the change in known infectious disease patterns and the rise of new ones, and increases in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,” the report said.
“Sea level rise and temperature changes lead to greater chance of flooding in coastal communities and increase adverse impacts to navigation safety, damages to port facilities and cooperative security locations, and displaced populations.”
Sea level rise is a particularly potent threat in the Asia-Pacific region, where much of the population lives in low-lying coastal cities. More powerful weather events will require the U.S. military to mobilize significant forces to administer humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, the report says.
The people and nations who stand to experience the worst impacts from a warming planet are those last able to deal with the effects of sea-level rise and worsening natural disasters, but the developed world is also at risk, the report said.
“Although climate-related stress will disproportionately affect fragile and conflict-affected states, even resilient, well-developed countries are subject to the effects of climate change in significant and consequential ways,” it said.
In the continental United States, the military will be faced with responding to more and worse disasters like Hurricane Sandy, which required the mobilization of 14,000 troops in New York and New Jersey, the report said. Another 10,000 troops were assigned various cleanup and recovery tasks like restoring power, repairing damaged roads, distributing drinking water and food and building temporary shelter for storm victims.
Combatants commanders in all of the military’s geographic areas of responsibility have therefore begun incorporating climate change into their planning documents for future contingencies.
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) is focused on dealing with worsening drought and disease epidemics that could hit already vulnerable populations and politically unstable nations, the report said. U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) have an eye on the national security implications of an Arctic with no ice cap. The opening of the Arctic will increase access to shipping and has already begun a preemptive race to mine and exploit natural resources that were previously out of reach beneath the ice, the report said.
Pacific Command is most concerned over the impacts of rising sea levels on huge coastal population centers that could be displaced. PACOM and U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) share concerns over the impact of a warming ocean on fishing, coral reefs, mangrove forests, recreation and disease outbreaks.
The report makes no recommendation on how to mitigate climate change or the enactment of any policies to that end. It was written as a response to a request from Congress that the military identify global warming-related security risks specific to each combatant command and how each is preparing to address those risks.