The Government Accountability Office (GAO) advises DoD to slow the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) Armed Overwatch program until the command and DoD justify the need for 75 planned L3Harris Technologies‘ [LHX] AT-802U Sky Warden aircraft or some other number.
On July 31 last year, SOCOM awarded L3Harris a contract worth up to $3 billion for Armed Overwatch (Defense Daily, Aug. 1, 2022).
Under the contract, L3Harris is to build 75 AT-802U Sky Wardens through July 2029. SOCOM wants four squadrons of Armed Overwatch planes and 15 trainers.
“The Secretary of Defense should ensure that the commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, analyzes the number of Armed Overwatch aircraft needed in SOCOM’s force structure in accordance with the priorities established in classified guidance and DoD Directive 8260.05 and provide this analysis to Congress,” GAO said on Dec. 14 in
Special Operations Forces: DOD Should Slow Acquisition of Armed Overwatch Aircraft Until It Conducts Needed Analysis (GAO-24-106283).
“The analysis should be documented, informed by modeling demand for this aircraft using valid assumptions about its capabilities and tactics, techniques, and Special Operations Forces
procedures, and take into account changes in SOCOM’s operating environment that may alter demand for the aircraft,” the report said. “The Secretary of Defense should ensure that the commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, starting in fiscal year 2025, limits the acquisition of the Armed Overwatch aircraft to the minimum rate needed to maintain the aircraft production line and support operational test and evaluation until SOCOM completes the recommended analysis.”
DoD Directive 8260.05, promulgated in July 2011, relates to DoD strategic support analysis involving the undersecretary of defense for policy, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Pentagon’s office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation.
The GAO report said that SOCOM studies “completed in 2021 and 2022 did not justify SOCOM’s planned fleet size of 75 aircraft, nor did four other related studies conducted by external entities that were published from April 2021 through March 2023.”
“GAO found that SOCOM is limited in its ability to justify this acquisition target for three reasons,” the study said. “Documentation indicates that SOCOM decided on the size of the fleet before conducting the required analyses. SOCOM did not assess how changes in the aircraft’s capabilities could affect the number needed for operations. Specifically, the aircraft selected is more capable than the one modeled. SOCOM is also determining how to adapt the aircraft to meet intelligence requirements that may affect demand. SOCOM has not reevaluated its needs despite changes to operational missions (such as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan) and force structure reductions under consideration.”
DoD agreed with GAO’s first recommendation to analyze the needed Armed Overwatch force structure and provide the analysis to Congress, but said that the Pentagon wants to balance any Armed Overwatch acquisition deceleration with the need to have sufficient Sky Wardens to train initial qualified aircrew and create a training pipeline to support initial operational capability.
“We agree that training aircrews is an essential part of the development of the Armed Overwatch program,” GAO said. “However, ensuring that DoD is acquiring the appropriate number of aircraft is an important prerequisite for helping SOCOM refine its training plans to make the most efficient use of special operations personnel. Since special operations officials estimate that the department will have spent approximately 80 percent of funding for the Armed Overwatch program before it reaches initial operational capability, we believe that SOCOM would benefit from minimizing acquisition until completing the recommended force structure analysis of Armed Overwatch aircraft needs.”
“SOCOM could inform this analysis by considering training, tactics, and techniques as well as changes in DoD’s operating environment, among other factors identified in our report,” the study said. “Completion of the force structure analysis would position SOCOM to make efficient use of its resources when making decisions about aircraft acquisitions and aircrew conversions.”