By Dave Ahearn
The weather satellite system program, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R), may see a $1 billion jump in the price of the system, even after the number of planned satellites was halved to just two and a key sensor was dropped.
A government watchdog agency reports that while some progress is being made in getting a handle on GOES-R costs and schedule, more progress is needed to whip the program into shape.
That was the news Tuesday in a hearing of the House Science and Technology Committee energy and environment subcommittee, which decided to check once again on the health of the troubled program.
A year ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated that the cost of four satellites in the series with a full sensor suite would tip off around $12 billion, or roughly double earlier estimates that the full four-bird system would cost just $6.2 billion and have a first launch in 2012.
So NOAA at that time cut the number of satellites in half, to two, and lopped off a planned sensor, the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite, cutting the cost estimate to $6.9 billion. Even that still “is a lot of taxpayer money,” said Rep. Bob Inglis of South Carolina, ranking Republican on the subcommittee.
But then, a senior NOAA official indicated at the hearing that the cost of the pared-down constellation of just two satellites may jump from the $6.9 billion estimate, rising by about $1 billion, and the first satellite launch might be delayed from 2014 to 2015.
When President Bush next February releases his proposed budget for the federal government in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2009, the funding section for NOAA likely will estimate the price tag on GOES-R at $7 billion to $8 billion, according to Mary Ellen Kicza, NOAA assistant administrator for satellite and information services.
“It is between seven and eight billion,” she told the panel.
Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas), the subcommittee chairman, asked Kicza where that extra $1 billion will be found.
“We are in dialogue with the administration” on that point, she said.
To be sure, however, things could be worse.
An independent review panel has estimated costs of the two-satellite system may run as high as $9.3 billion.
The independent review team recently estimated that costs might rise by $2 billion, and the delay in launch of the first satellite might be as long as two years, perhaps being delayed until as late as 2017.
Kicza replied that the difference between NOAA estimates and independent estimates is shrinking, with NOAA raising its price projection and the independent panel cutting its cost forecast.
Refereeing the dispute, the watchdog Government Accountability Office sees the GOES-R series cost (for both the GOES-R and GOES-S satellites) “somewhere in the vicinity of $8 billion — $1 billion over the current estimate.”
“That is not a good trend,” Lampson said.
In a sense, the failure to meet the initial satellite launch date may be even more worrisome than the failure to meet cost estimates.
More money can be found, perhaps. But what happens if the next satellites to be launched, GOES-O and GOES-P, have problems, and current GOES satellites in orbit reach the end of their current lives?
Even NOAA sees the first GOES-R satellite launch being delayed from 2014 to 2015, though the weather agency disagrees with the independent panel estimate of a 2017 first launch.
Inglis voiced worries. “I’m particularly concerned that possible [GOES satellite series] launch delays will result in discontinuity of valuable forecasting data,” he said.
“If GOES-R fails to launch until 2017, and doesn’t come online until 2019, will [agencies such as NOAA] lose access to the information they need to accurately predict and observe storms?”
That is a major reason why this all matters. From weather forecasters tracking hurricanes so as to provide accurate warnings to those in the path of destructive winds and rain, to TV news personnel using satellite weather pictures each day, GOES satellites provide crucial information needed by many.
Also at stake here is a rich prize, or prizes, for contractors.
A decision to have NASA take care of the satellites-in-space portion of the program, and have NOAA retain jurisdiction over the ground segments of GOES-R, added half a year or a year delay to the ground system portion of the program, by some estimates.
But at some point, the agencies will issue requests for proposals, and some of the biggest contractors are expected to jump at the opportunity.
And there is no time for dithering on awarding a contract, Lampson said.
“Today, it is at the point where the decision has to be made to buy GOES-R,” he told Kicza.