Report Says Iranian Satellite Launch Should Spur U.S. Move On Missile Defense
An International Atomic Energy Agency report that Iran has produced 1,010 kilograms — a bit more than a metric ton — of low-enriched uranium (LEU) shows that Iran “has crossed a red line in its nuclear program,” according to a Wilson Center report.
The report, titled “Iran Passes Strategic Threshold in Nuclear Production” was authored by Michael Adler, a Wilson Center public policy scholar.
“This is theoretically enough fissile material for the ‘break-out capability’ to make a bomb,” Adler noted.
However, a senior UN official said Iran would still have to enrich the low-grade uranium into highly enriched (HEU) form, and the nation would need more LEU if technical problems arose.
Iran might want to do this in a clandestine facility with more efficient machines, the official said. The Iranians clearly have passed a strategic threshold in a program it insists is aimed at producing electricity, not bombs, and they have done so in defiance of U.N. Security Council sanctions.
“The disconcerting news comes as the United States is mounting a heralded diplomatic initiative to engage rather than confront Iran over its atomic ambitions,” the Wilson Center report noted. It also comes as fresh warnings have been uttered about burgeoning Iranian capabilities. (Please see stories in this issue.)
“U.S. officials have said they will continue to demand that Iran stop enriching uranium,” the report noted.
While American leaders have warned Iranian nuclear weapons production might spark an arms race in the Middle East, “countries from Algeria to Saudi Arabia have their eyes on the Islamic Republic as it advances its technology,” the report continued. “Iran’s progress shows how fast the clock is ticking, which makes diplomacy difficult.”
More worrisome, the IAEA and U.N. official “revealed that Iran had originally underestimated its production of LEU by a huge amount. The IAEA said this was a technical error common in the early stages of an enrichment program, but outside experts said it raises questions about the effectiveness of IAEA monitoring. The IAEA carries out a formal weighing only once a year.”
The full report may be read at http://www.wilsoncenter.org on the Web.
For a separate assessment by the Institute for Science and International Security of the IAEA findings, please go to http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/IAEA_Report_Analysis.pdf on the Web.
Iran at the same time has placed a satellite into orbit, and while the satellite is a primitive device, the rocket technology that put it in space is impressive, according to a new report from The Marshall Institute.
U.S. policymakers should respond by accelerating their move to create a European Missile Defense System, according to the report titled “Implications for U.S. National Security” that was authored by James Mazol, research associate with the institute.
There is “ample evidence that [Iran] places a priority on investments in long-range missiles,” the report notes.
Therefore, a defense against the emergent Iranian missile capability is required.
“The emergence of a space-capable Iran should spur accelerated deployment of a missile shield across western and central Europe,” the report observes. “Great progress has been made as the Czech government approved radar tracking stations last year and Poland appears set to allow interceptor missiles on its territory. Working with its NATO partners, the U.S. is quickly moving towards a reliable, comprehensive, cost-effective, multilateral system providing maximum asset and ally coverage.”
To read the report in full, please go to http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/626.pdf on the Web.
However, some deep cuts may be made in missile defense programs, including the EMD system. (Please see separate story in this issue.)