While Iran may not have made a political decision to build nuclear weapons, any obstacles to doing so are quickly disappearing, according to a paper from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a think tank in Washington.
“Iran has not made the political decision to build a nuclear arsenal, though the technical and material impediments to developing a weapons capability are quickly falling away,” the ISIS paper estimates.
Israel views the Iranian threat with far greater concern, seeing Iran as already having crossed the threshold toward a nuclear weapons program, beyond the nuclear materials production program that even Tehran admits exists.
True, Iran would have to further refine its supply of low enriched uranium to turn it into weapons-grade highly enriched uranium before nuclear weapons could be built, ISIS noted.
However, ISIS finds many troubling developments, especially an Iranian lack of transparency in its nuclear program.
ISIS “agrees that Iran’s failure to adhere to the Additional Protocol and measures requiring Iran to declare new facilities before starting construction has created one of the most significant blind spots for the International Atomic Energy Agency, in particular its ability to understand Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing capabilities and plans,” the report stated.
“The current safeguards inspections are unable to determine whether Iran is operating gas centrifuges in secret.”
Also, ISIS doesn’t take great comfort in the fact that the nuclear materials Iran has produced thus far aren’t yet further refined into weapons grade substances.
The report cautioned that “it is also important not to downplay Iran’s steadily accumulating stockpile of low enriched uranium. This material is now sufficient to provide Iran with the means to relatively rapidly (less than a year; perhaps a few months) produce a nuclear weapon that it did not previously have.”
While President Obama, in the election campaign last year, offered to negotiate with Iranian leaders, the ISIS report indicates that any such negotiations better go well.
“This raises the stakes for the diplomatic process, which shows no signs yet of being reenergized (though it is still early in the Obama administration, and we recognize that a policy review is underway).
“The United States is in a strong position to chart a new relationship with Iran that is less confrontational and begins to address the nuclear issue in a broader context, including Iran’s concerns about regional security and economic development. For its part, Iran must also be willing to examine anew its own domestic, regional and global objectives and question how its nuclear ambitions help to achieve those goals.”
The report that is titled “Sorting through more official statements on Iran’s nuclear capability” may be read in entirety at http://isis- online.org/publications/iran/Iran_Official_Statement_Issue_Brief_12Mar2009.pdf on the Web.