Many of the technologies that will define the U.S. military’s third offset strategy have yet to be invented, so Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work–the concept’s most vocal champion–often explains his vision in terms of science fiction works in popular culture.
The defining concept within the third offset is the development of seamless interaction between humans and machines on the battlefield. It involves elements of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic warfare that have been the focus of alarmist literature and film, but Work insists that the military is interested only in how machines can help–not replace–human combatants.
Work repeatedly offered the Bolo tank, a fictional superheavy tank equipped with artificial intelligence that is capable of strategic planning but is commanded by or at least collaborates with a human pilot.
“At its core it hypothesizes that advances in AI and autonomy are going to bring on a new era in human-machine collaboration and combat teaming,” Work said Monday at the Atlantic Council’s 2016 Global Strategy Forum in Washington, D.C.
“When I talk about this, people immediately start to think of Skynet and Terminator–a sentient machine that can write its own code…and knock out human intervention,” Work said. “I prefer to think more in terms of Iron Man where the machine makes a human much more powerful, capable.”
Military technology is no longer solely the domain of governments, but the U.S. is making investments in advanced autonomous capabilities to get ahead of proliferation, Work said.
Aside from indestructible battle suits and thinking tanks, machines will likely take over the complex calculations involved in operating a battle network in combat that increasingly relies on connectivity, cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum.
Work said that a high-end fight between two developed nations in the future will essentially be network-on-network warfare “where your battle network collides with another.” He said the popular Defense Department refrain “anti-access, area-denial” is shorthand for a defensive network arranged into three grids: a sensor gird that monitors what is going on, a command-and-control grid that makes sense of everything happening on the battlefield and an “effects gird” that gives commanders physical response options.
Human commanders and troops could be far away from the front, controlling unmanned systems that are collecting intelligence and delivering ordnance, as in the popular science fiction novel and film “Ender’s Game,” Work said.
“The challenge is how do you put autonomous systems, AI, into your network?” Work said. “It is going to be a world where most of the things that have to do with AI and autonomy is happening in the private sector. You’re not going to have a lasting advantage so you have to configure yourself to be agile and nimble fast follower.”
Work said the race is on to develop human-machine interfaces and practical military applications for them, because the genie is out of the bottle. Between the world wars, the military advantage of machine guns, tanks, radio communication and airplanes was thoroughly demonstrated. Only Nazi Germany brought the revolutionary military technologies into a cohesive strategy of Blitzkrieg, Work said.
The Defense Department already has a handle on some of the capabilities that will define the third offset. It will reveal some as a deterrent to war and conceal others as unadvertised advantages against future adversaries, he said. The same strategy worked in the second offset when during the Gulf War the U.S. military demonstrated it had perfected precision munitions, which had were invented in the mid-1940s.
Stealth aircraft and the ability to evade enemy air defense radar was concealed until the F-117 Nighthawk was revealed just prior to the Gulf War, Work said.