HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — The U.S. ballistic missile defense forces are capable today of defending against North Korean ballistic missile threats but are still developing future capabilities for future threats, the Defense Department’s newest missile defense chief said on Wednesday.
Lt. Gen Samuel Greaves, who was recently installed as the director of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), directly responded to a question at the annual Space and Missile Defense Symposium on whether U.S. ballistic missile defenses could defend against a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in range of major U.S. cities.
“Yes, we believe that the current deployed ballistic missile defense system can meet today’s threat.”
The Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), with Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) based in Ft. Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), Calif., is geared to intercept and defeat a limited number of ballistic missiles launched from a place like North Korea. Boeing [BA] is the lead contractor for GMD, with subcontractors including Northrop Grumman [NOC] , Raytheon [RTN].
In May, the MDA successfully tested the GMD system against an ICBM-like target (Defense Daily, May 30). Former MDA Director Vice Adm. Jim Syring noted at the time the test was realistic and replicated a scenario the agency expects would occur during an operational engagement (Defense Daily, June 1).
More recently, MDA successfully intercepted a intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) target with the Lockheed Martin [LMT]-built Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in July (Defense Daily, July 12). One THAAD battery is located in Guam, which falls within the range of an IRBM.
However, Greaves noted the agency is pursuing additional capacity and advanced capability to stay ahead of the evolving threat. That means they want to be able to mitigate ICBM countermeasures like decoys and eventually address the threat of hyperglide vehicles and maneuvering re-entry vehicles.
This came after two North Korean ICBM-range missile tests within a month, a threat by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, and a counter-threat by North Korea toward Guam Wednesday.
“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” Trump said. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” he told reporters from his golf club in Bedminister, N.J. Trump is spending a working vacation there while the White House undergoes some repairs and renovations.
“He has been very threatening beyond a normal state, and as I said, they will be met with fire and fury, and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before,” Trump continued, referring to Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis said in a statement on Wednesday that the U.S. and its allies have demonstrated capabilities and “unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack.”
“The DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name] should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people,” Mattis added.
The secretary noted “the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth. The DPRK regime’s actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates.”
Separately, Greaves said MDA does not yet know if a future hypersonic kill vehicle would require a hit-to-kill capability like current U.S. missile defense systems use. He said they are working through those issues now with the engineering staff and the answer could be hit-to-kill, detonation in the vicinity, or some combination.
In regard to advanced technology, the MDA is pursuing increased GMD reliability through better kill assessment so they know the full results from tests and how to improve, multiple kill vehicles (multi-object kill vehicle, MOKV) on one missile, enhanced radar coverage, advance discrimination, advanced sensors, and boost-phase intercept.
Greaves noted the MOKV in particular, if fully developed, would be a good resource. Using one GBI to defeat eight to 10 targets each would be a very efficient usage of precious resources. However, he highlighted the MDA will not over promise on this kind of capability.
“I want to tell you that is a complex challenge and one of the things we will not do within the Missile Defense Agency is over promise and under deliver.”
MDA officials would not tell Congress or the administration that the MOKV could be ready in three years or in a timeline like that, “because we understand the complexity and the challenge of delivering that capability. We will, with industry, inform the administration and the Congress on what it takes to deliver that capability. And we will deliver as promised.”
Greaves said the Defense Department and missile defense industry need to collectively set expectations and deliver as promised because the current environment features missile threats actors who “get a vote,” meaning make their own decisions.
In the long run this includes the idea of boost-phase intercept and space-based sensors. The Defense Department is starting on boost-phase intercept by developing lower power lasers–directed energy weapons–and then scaling those up over time now.
Eventually higher power lasers could be deployed on long endurance high altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that would be deployed close to a threat actor and destroy a missile in its earlier launch phase, Greaves said.
But the MDA will “need to ensure that collectively we set expectations and then deliver as we have promised. No wild speculation on space-based interceptors showing up tomorrow.”
Greaves said boost-phase interception has to undergo policy and operational concept development before they start developing a true capability. To this end, the director said the MDA curtailed directed energy work in 2017 “for one reason or another” but he is pushing to get the development back online so they can continue scaling that effort up.
Greaves was also reluctant to say much about the ongoing Ballistic Missile Defense Review, set to be released later this year. The MDA and a “slew of other entities” are participating in the work to see what the right balance for U.S. ballistic missile defense capabilities is, including homeland vs. regional defense.
He clarified that he was not saying the systems are out of balance but “we’ve been charged to reassess whether or not we have gotten the appropriate balance there and judgment is required – maybe nothing, maybe some, maybe a lot. And then work to provide the policy and strategy framework for our missile defense systems.”