North Korea Poses A Threat To Allies; Its Missile Launch Violates U.N. Rule; Even Satellite Launch Shows Korean Threat

Multilayered U.S. Missile Defense System Seen as ‘Critical’: General’s Assessment

Senior military officers told Congress there is a high probability that U.S. missile defense forces could knock down a long-range missile that North Korea threatens to launch illegally early next month.

In other words, they have high confidence that the U.S. missile defense system works, despite recent testimony by a Pentagon weapons testing and evaluation expert that he lacks such confidence in the missile defense systems.

There is no way to be sure whether the North Korean missile carries a satellite being lofted to orbit, as Pyongyang claims, or whether the missile is tipped with a warhead, the officers stated. Regardless of its payload, the launch will violate international restrictions.

Those comments came during a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, when Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-D-Conn.) asked what would be the probability that U.S. missile defense forces could annihilate the missile that North Korea is poised to launch.

“A high probability,” replied Army Gen. Walter L. “Skip” Sharp, commander of United Nations Forces, commander of the Republic of Korea-United Stated Combined Forces Command, and commander of United States Forces Korea.

Missile defense forces would “provide a high probability” of a successful hit on the Korean missile, said Adm. Timothy J. Keating, commander of the United States Pacific Command.

A similar assessment came from Air Force Gen. Kevin P. Chilton, commander of the United States Strategic Command, assuming that there was adequate warning before the launch, which North Korea already has provided. As reported earlier, North Korea said it will launch the missile in a window of April 4-8.

When the North launched a Taepo Dong-2 long-range missile in 2006, the United States had Navy ships equipped with Aegis weapon systems and Standard Missiles poised to kill the North Korean weapon. However, the Taepo Dong-2 destructed a few seconds after launch.

North Korea at that time also launched several short-and medium-range missiles at that time, Sharp recalled.

The senior officers promised to watch North Korean missile launching activities closely.

Even if the North Korean long-range missile contains a satellite instead of a warhead, it still is a dangerous development, Sharp noted. A missile capable of launching a satellite into orbit contains the same basic technology required for building an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

If the North wields an ICBM tipped with a nuclear weapon, Pyongyang would “be able to [strike] anywhere in the world,” Sharp observed, a possibility which “gives us pause,” Chilton said.

Considering the steady advance in North Korean missile prowess, “we worry about it reaching the West Coast of the United States,” Chilton said.

Keating said the North Korean missile could threaten the United States as soon as April 4.

Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii), represents one of the states that experts say could easily be hit by the Taepo Dong-2, with the other states including Alaska and West Coast states.

“We’re very concerned,” Akaka said.

In that potential theater of war, “North Korea is the largest day-to-day concern in the eyes of most nations,” Keating said. It isn’t just that North Korea is developing the Taepo Dong-2, but rather the worry that leaders in Pyongyang may not be rational. “Their leadership is characterized as erratic,” Keating said. “Their day-to-day actions are unpredictable,” lurching from closing airspace to commercial airliners at one point, to closing borders to South Koreans, or taking other abrupt hostile actions, all of which is “unsettling,” he said.

Lieberman expressed satisfaction in “the remarkable progress we’ve made” in creating a multilayered U.S. missile defense system, but expressed concern about rumors that President Obama and a Democratic-led Congress may slash missile defense programs deeply. Obama next month will send Congress his proposed federal budget plan for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2009.

It is “critical” for the United States to continue its drive to create a multilayered missile defense system, Sharp said. Chilton said it is important to “strike a balance” in American missile defense, adding that the multilayered system must be able to defend both citizens in the United States and U.S. forces abroad.

The multi-layered system would be geared to killing enemy missiles of varying ranges, up to and including ICBMs, and the multilayered missile defense also involves different systems that hit incoming enemy missiles in various phases of their trajectories: just after launch in the “boost” phase, in the high-altitude midcourse phase, and in the terminal phase while the enemy missile is plunging toward its target.

All of that can give U.S. forces repeated chances to kill an enemy missile, so that if the first attempt to take it down fails, another attempt may be initiated.

Sharp said it is crucial for the United States to be able to knock missiles down at various stages after the enemy launches them.

The “boost phase” missile defense system is “attractive” for several reasons, Chilton said.

Their comments came as rumors abound that Obama and a Democratic-led Congress may drop or deeply cut and delay some programs in the multilayered missile defense system, including the only system designed to guard the United States against ICBMs, the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, and the Airborne Laser, which is to be the only system to take out enemy missiles of any range just after they launch, before they have the opportunity to deploy multiple warheads, decoys or confusing chaff. Both programs are led by The Boeing Co. [BA].

Any missile defense funding cuts would come on top of existing U.S. missile defense shortages, according to the officers.

Shortage Of Interceptors

Keating said with the number of missile interceptors and systems currently in hand, missile defense forces can defend the United States from attack. However, he said, enemies have far more offensive missiles than the United States has interceptors.

Sharp provided numbers showing just how lopsided the imbalance is.

“North Korea has … over 800 missiles,” Sharp told Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). “We have currently on the [Korean] peninsula 64 Patriots from the U.S. And the Republic of Korea just purchased 24. And we’re starting to incorporate those into the defense also.”

Clearly, more missile defense interceptors are required, he said.

“Could we use more? Yes,” he said. “We are working hard to make sure that the ballistic missile defense of the Patriots are properly linked together, that we have the intelligence to properly queue, and that we have them positioned at the right places to be able to defend our most critical warfighting assets.

“But it does leave other areas uncovered, and we could — both we and the Republic of Korea — could use more [interceptors], and we’re working hard at that.”

A missile defense proponent said the comments from the military brass show a clear need for missile defense programs to continue, making clear that funding cuts would create vulnerabilities for the United States.

“It is clear and under oath from our Pacific and strategic military commanders that they require missile defense capabilities to defend the United States and their areas of responsibility,” said Riki Ellison, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.

“To not listen to our military commanders and to deny the funding and support for continuing to field and develop these missile defense systems to protect our nation, our allies, our armed forces, and our citizens — especially in the states of Hawaii and Alaska — is irresponsible and puts them at great risk.”