SIMI VALLEY, California – While the United States continues to follow and weigh threats from countries including Russia, Iran and North Korea, a number of panelists at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum Dec. 1 pointed to China as having the biggest potential to undermine economic and national security.
Beijing’s ability to more thoroughly change the pace of American life makes it a more viable threat, even as Moscow this week sought to assert its dominance by seizing Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait, Defense Department officials and lawmakers said at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Institute here.
Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson in an afternoon panel said that while Russia is a threat that works to intimidate its neighbors, China is considered the “pacing threat” because it is more rapidly growing and innovating, and is also operating in a larger theater where it is more difficult to project power.
“China aspires to be a global military power and they have been very open about that, and they have a timeline they are working toward,” Wilson said. She added that Beijing also seeks to increase its influence “and not always in ways that are about developing allies [but] more about buying fealty.”
Michael Brown, president and CEO of the Defense Innovation Unit, noted in a morning panel that “we have never lived in a time” where China’s economy has been bigger than that of the United States, and yet Beijing’s GDP has been projected to surpass Washington’s by 2030.
“Because economic security and national security are so tied together … we’re going to be challenged in a way we’ve never been challenged in our lifetime,” Brown said. The United States needs to “create more room” in the budget for research and development efforts, science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education and so-called “moon shots” that can ensure it maintains a technological and economic edge over China, he added.
Beijing has invested in “civil-military fusion” – bridging the gap between commercial tech industry and its military services – to such a degree that it is “so much bigger of a potential opponent than the Soviets were” during the Cold War, Brown noted.
In his keynote speech, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the U.S. government seeks “a constructive, reciprocal, results-oriented relationship with Beijing,” but that it also rejects “predatory economic practices or coercion of smaller states.” He pledged that the U.S. military will exercise “constructive vigilance” while working with regional allies and partners to defend its interests and uphold American values.
Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, played down the idea that China currently poses a risk to U.S. security, but agreed that its plans for growth merit monitoring.
“They are a rising power; we are an existing power,” he said in a lunch panel with his HASC co-leader, Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas). ‘But they are going to grow and try to spread their influence.”
The United States will have to consider “how to peacefully coexist with China,” Smith added. “If we can, we’ve got a lot more peaceful and prosperous world.”
Diplomacy is “the first step” toward ensuring that future, but a sufficient deterrent can also play a role, he noted. “There is no reason why we can’t find a way to work with China despite all the challenges.”
Mattis said he is working “quietly” and “quite closely” with his Chinese counterpart to work together “in a manner that when we step on each others’ toes, which may happen from time to time, we have a way to manage these issues.”
The U.S. government will confront China “where we must,” but that is not the goal, he noted.
“I believe 10 years from now … what the Trump administration will be most remembered for, [is] were we able to create that new way to operate with China?” he said. “Were we able to create a mechanism by which we could maneuver on the world stage, economically, diplomatically, security-wise, and keep the peace and not stumble into a miscalculation?”