The U.S.’ top military leader in Europe has said Ukraine is set to run out of artillery rounds and air defense interceptors “in fairly short order,” telling lawmakers on Wednesday he believes Kyiv “will not be able to prevail” against Russia without continued U.S. support.
Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command/NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, testified to the House Armed Services Committee that Ukraine has been rationing artillery rounds and is currently outshot by the Russians ‘five-to-one,’ with that ratio to worsen in the coming weeks.
“That will immediately go to 10-to-one in a matter of weeks. We are not talking about months. We’re not talking hypothetically,” Cavoli told the panel.
Cavoli’s remarks on the “extremely serious” state of Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion arrives as the supplemental bill with further aid for Ukraine remains stalled in the House.
“I can’t predict the future but I can do simple math. And when I look at the supply rates, [when] I look at the supply sources, [when] I look at the consumption rates, if we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order,” Cavoli said. “Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the other side that can’t shoot back loses. So the stakes are very high.”
“Without our support, [Ukraine] will not be able to prevail,” Cavoli added.
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the HASC chair, said Wednesday that Congress “needs to pass” the supplemental, while Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the panel’s ranking member, asked every member “to implore” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring up the legislation for consideration.
“The House has waited months now to approve the security package to help protect Ukraine. Weeks ago, we were too late. And now, every day is at an extreme cost to our ability to deter Russia in Ukraine but, as the chairman correctly pointed out, to [also] deter the whole broad alliance that is trying to tear down the international rules-based system,” Smith said. “It would pass the House and be signed by the president in short order. All we need is a little democracy. Give us the chance to vote on that bill so we can give Ukraine the help that they so desperately need.”
The Senate in February passed its $95.3 billion supplemental bill, which includes $60 billion to continue supporting Ukraine, while Johnson has yet to bring it up in the House with some lawmakers signaling it could be considered before the end of April (Defense Daily, Feb. 13).
Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, joined Cavoli during Wednesday’s HASC hearing and told lawmakers the Pentagon is already seeing the impacts in Ukraine from the delay in passing the supplemental.
“The Ukrainians are having to use less artillery. The Russians have made some advances. And [the Ukrainians] are having to decide what to defend. And that’s why the Russian attacks are getting through and really harming the Ukrainian electricity grid. So we don’t need to imagine, we’re already seeing it,” Wallander said.
Cavoli noted the U.S. is the “main supplier” to Ukraine for ground-based air defense and artillery shells.
“Those two things also happen to be the most critical things on the battlefield. The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery in most conflicts but in this one definitely. And should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying,” Cavoli said. “Likewise for the air defense interceptors. Russia launches very large scale attacks every few days…keeping with what we believe their production rate to be. They produce, they save up and they launch a big attack. Those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against. Without U.S. provision of interceptors, that will happen.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that not passing the pending supplemental with further aid for Ukraine would send a signal to other countries that the U.S. is an “unreliable partner” (Defense Daily, April 9).
Wallander on Wednesday offered similar remarks as Austin as well as echoed previous comments from Adm. Samuel Paparo, the next leader of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, that passing the supplemental could also bolster deterrence against China and reassure Indo-Pacific partners of the U.S. level of commitment (Defense Daily, Feb. 1).
“China is watching how we perform in Europe because they are drawing lessons for how we will live up to our commitments to allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific,” Wallander said.