There is more than a 50 percent chance that an attack with a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) will be perpetrated by the end of 2013, a threat emanating from terrorists and rogue states, a 160-page commission report disclosed.
Worse, the threat is expanding faster than U.S. capabilities to counter it, the report warned.
The nonpartisan commissioners stated that they wished neither to frighten nor reassure the public, but rather wished “to convey the sobering reality that the risks are growing faster than our multilayered defenses.”
“Our margin of safety is shrinking, not growing,” according to the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, in summing up its months of work.
“The commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013,” the report cautioned.
Response to the report and its disquieting findings was swift, with praise for the commissioners and their work, and calls for those warnings to be heeded.
For example, Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee (HASC), expressed worry at the findings.
“We have long understood that weapons of mass destruction pose serious national security risks, but I am deeply concerned by the increasing risk of WMD proliferation and terrorism identified by the Commission’s report,” Skelton said.
“The Commission makes clear that the world has witnessed a new era of WMD proliferation in recent years and that Congress, the executive branch, and the world community must act decisively and with great urgency to prevent a terrorist attack using WMD.”
One way the United States has attempted to thwart potential attacks involving weapons of mass destruction is by charging the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) with developing and deploying a multilayered shield against ballistic missiles fired by rogue nations. The HASC oversees the agency.
“I look forward to closely examining the Commission’s findings and recommendations as the House Armed Services Committee continues to address WMD risks through oversight and legislative action,” Skelton said. “I also strongly encourage the Obama Administration to closely review the commission’s work,” referring to President-elect Obama.
The commission almost was blown up by terrorists: while in Kuwait, commission members were heading to Pakistan, where they were to stay at a Marriott Hotel. However, as they awaited a flight, they saw on television reports that terrorists attacked the hotel, leaving it in flames.
Ever more nations possess nuclear materials and other ingredients for weapons of mass destruction, and this proliferation is threatening, the report found. It focused on nuclear and biological agents, because they pose the greatest peril of attack.
The more nations and entities possess nuclear, biological and chemical substances, the greater the chance that they will be diverted to weapons programs and fall into the hands of those who wish to harm the United States and others, the report continued.
As more nations and entities possess nuclear or other materials, chances increase that some of those materials will be poorly guarded, providing an opportunity for theft and misuse by terrorists, the report predicted.
While the trend of the rising threat clearly is headed in the wrong direction, all is not lost yet, and there still remains an opportunity to stymie evildoers before they bring down great harm upon the American people, or on allies, the report stated.
“There is still time to defend ourselves, if we act with the urgency called for by the nature of the threat that confronts us,” the report asserted. “Sounding that call for urgent action is the purpose of this report.”
While the commission sees terrorists having an easier time in constructing biological weapons, the report also warns of malefactors laying their hands upon nuclear materials or weapons. Commissioners elected to ignore a further mandate to study the threat posed by chemical weapons, because biological and nuclear weapons are potentially far more deadly.
“The commission … believes that terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon,” but there are clear dangers of both types of weapons falling into terrorist hands, the report found.
Thus the U.S. government should more aggressively limit proliferation of biological weapons, and also act strongly against states such as Iran and North Korea obtaining or producing nuclear weapons, the report advised. As well, the panel expressed concern that Pakistan has become a nuclear state, where A.Q.Kahn set up a nuclear sales program.
Nuclear weapons proliferation is especially worrisome, the report continued, because the spread of these devices “may increase the prospect of military crises that could lead to war and catastrophic use of these weapons,” with the risk of a nuclear weapon being detonated rising, not subsiding.
“If not constrained, this proliferation could prompt nuclear crises and even nuclear use at the very time that the United States and Russia are trying to reduce” their nuclear stockpiles, the report observed.
Not only are WMD materials and devices proliferating, but so too are the numbers of terrorist groups that might be wont to use them, the report added.
Missile defense systems, conversely, offer an opportunity to kill such weapons before they can annihilate any American cities.
Lt. Gen. Henry A. “Trey” Obering III, who recently stepped down as the MDA director, noted that when an enemy missile is incoming toward the United States, missile defense provides the president a further option aside from launching a massive nuclear retaliatory strike against that enemy.
While the report is bold in outlining the threat, when it comes to recommending a response from the United States and West, the report recommends more of what already has been tried, and failed, to prevent proliferation.
Obama should use “the tools of ‘soft power’ to communicate effectively about American intentions and to build grassroots social and economic institutions that will discourage radicalism and undercut the terrorists in danger spots around the world — especially in Pakistan,” the report asserted.
To be sure, with North Korea, the report states that if Pyongyang doesn’t surrender and abandon its nuclear weapons production program, harsh negotiations should follow, and if unsuccessful, then those talks “must be backed by the credible threat of direct action in the event that diplomacy fails.”
To read or forward, but not to copy, the report titled “The World at Risk,” please go to http://www.scribd.com/doc/8574914/World-at-Risk-The-Report-of-the-Commission-on-the-Prevention-of-WMD- Proliferation-and-Terrorism-Full-Report on the Web.