Piracy, illicit trafficking and maritime terrorism in the Persian Gulf and northern Indian Ocean region will, in all likelihood, intensify in the years ahead and there aren’t enough resources, especially militarily, being provided to address these problems, according to a recent white paper.
The white paper, Countering Piracy, Trafficking and Terrorism: Ensuring Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean; by Rupert Herbert-Burns of the Stimson Center, argues that this regional space affected by piracy, specifically well-armed, Somalia-based pirates, covers 2.5 million square miles and is unable to be secured by even a vastly-increased naval presence. In response, merchant vessels are implementing their own anti-piracy measures, such as private, armed security; risk avoidance and anti-boarding and hardening measures.
“The hiring of armed private security guards is now becoming the norm rather than the exception,” Herbert-Burns said. “This serious risk-mitigating measure is being increasingly driven by the realization that naval forces cannot provide sufficient protection and because hull insurance underwriters and Protection & Indemnity Clubs are refusing to offer acceptable war risk premiums unless armed security teams are embarked.”
Herbert-Burns also argues that the sustained trafficking of drugs, weapons and people throughout the region will continue for the medium- to long-term because of numerous sources of high-volume supply for all three commodities, sufficiently large numbers of points of export in key countries that suffer from insecurity and corrupt officials, a largely insecure environment for all this to take place in and a massive array of sea transportation available to service all necessary sites of demand and consumption.
Even as the number of companies choosing to employ privately-contracted, armed security personnel to guard vessels, and their inclination to use lethal force, increases, Herbert-Burns openly wonders if there could be an increase in the level of firepower and aggressiveness by pirates.
“Such an escalation is likely to make the task of deterring and disrupting piracy in the Indian Ocean more problematic for naval commanders and policymakers,” he said. “As the era of privately-contracted, armed security personnel increases evolves through 2012 and beyond, governments and decision-makers in the shipping industry will be monitoring whether the use of armed protection generates even-greater deterrence or fuels increased aggressiveness of hijackers willing to assume greater risks in order to capture ships.”
As potential policy responses, Herbert-Burns advocates “far more robust and sustained naval patrolling” by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He also urges nations with “sufficient warships” like the United States, United Kingdom, China and France, for instance, to patrol deeper into the area around the Arabian Peninsula. Herbert-Burns also encourages doing more to harness the threat-reporting and surveillance capability of all the merchant vessels in the area.
The white paper can be view at: http://bit.ly/JBI6fO